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Tracking the TVL-to-Price ratio

Tracking the TVL-to-Price ratio

On a longer time-frame, TVL is one of the clear signals of traction. As on-chain activity rises and incentives kick in, changes in TVL (adjusted for bribes) reveal which crypto projects are truly winning the battle for users, beyond the noise of shifting narratives.

23 Sept 2025

Opinions

At a glance


  • Over the past year, TVL has quietly doubled, revealing which protocols are pulling real liquidity while prices chase narratives.
  • The TVL/price ratio highlights where fundamentals and valuations diverge for example in lending.
  • Changes in sustained capital (TVL) flows, not headlines, are showing the real winners as liquidity reshuffles across sectors.

As crypto continues to churn through shifting narratives, it is becoming harder to keep oversight of what really matters. Each week brings a fresh meta, from perpetual DEX competition to meme token revivals, and the temptation is always to keep eyes glued to the price tape. Yet in today’s market, it is often the underlying fundamentals that provide the real alpha. 

Onchain and dApp activity is rising, incentive programs are kicking in, and partnerships are being announced at a steady clip. Metrics like total value locked (TVL) are quietly shining through this noise, capturing the traction projects are building both on an absolute basis and relative to one another. At the end of the day, it is a battle for the net incremental user, and changes in TVL shows which projects are the relative winners.

TL;DR

Total value locked (TVL) and price

Total value locked has long been a cornerstone metric in crypto. It measures the assets entrusted to a protocol, the capital projects actively compete and sometimes “bribe” for, and a number investors monitor as a signal of traction. When the altcoin season index flashes highs and attention narrows to price alone, TVL often slips into the background. That is precisely when it deserves the closest attention. Fundamentals may not scream on the screen, but they sit in plain sight.

Why do (changes in) TVL metrics carry extra weight right now? First, they provide a ground-truth check on whether capital is actually flowing into protocols rather than just rotating between narratives. Second, they highlight stickiness and utility, showing whether liquidity is mercenary or genuinely engaged. Third, they act as an early sustainability indicator, since rising TVL underpins fee generation and protocol longevity.

That is why tracking TVL alongside price matters. While token prices often move independently in the short run, the TVL-to-price ratio is a useful shorthand. It gives a quick sense of whether fundamentals are being reflected or ignored by the market. Sustained increases in TVL/price may be a blunt tool, but sharp moves in the ratio flag protocols where fundamentals and valuations are starting to diverge.

Meaningful growth

Since April this year, when bitcoin last touched the high 70s before rocketing past 100k and never looking back, TVL has been climbing steadily. Over the past 180 days, total value locked across all verticals has increased 56%, rising from around 340 billion dollars to more than 530 billion. Stretch that view out a year and TVL has nearly doubled.

That relative growth is not happening evenly. Some verticals have pulled in huge inflows while others are treading water. Within sectors the divergence is just as stark: protocols that innovate, integrate, or build composability are capturing larger shares, while weaker designs fade away. The relative distribution of TVL across sectors tells a story of shifting adoption.

It is also worth stressing that TVL does not carry the same meaning across every category. In some cases, it is the lifeblood of a sector, in others, it plays a supporting role. The best lens is often intra-sector, comparing protocols that are in direct competition with each other. Lending offers a clear example.

The case for lending

In lending, TVL is important. It is a direct reflection of trust, liquidity, and protocol utility. Without deposits, lending platforms cannot extend credit, generate fees, or sustain themselves. That is why the TVL/price ratio is particularly revealing here, it shows whether growth is driven by real activity rather than speculative flows.

A rising ratio over the past six months signals that deposits are outpacing token appreciation, highlighting protocols where adoption, integrations, and design choices are pulling in genuine capital. In practice, the tangible headlines, new integrations, stablecoin reserves being deployed, governance changes, ultimately surface in TVL, which is the most direct measure of traction.

Tracking the dislocation between that traction and token price is a stronger signal than looking at absolute levels of TVL alone. Cohort averages or median movers give a better read of sector momentum than one-off spikes.

The standouts illustrate the point. Fluid’s outsized 1.85x jump shows what happens when a model resonates: its blend of lending and DEX functionality created a capital-efficient liquidity layer that attracted billions in deposits well beyond what the token priced in. Euler’s 1.01x improvement reflects the success of its v2 relaunch, permissionless markets, sharper risk tools, and RWA integrations pushed deposits above a billion, restoring trust post-hack. Silo Finance’s 0.81x climb underscores the appeal of risk-isolated pools and revenue sharing, bringing steady inflows without runaway token hype. Some others standing out are Maple, Spark and Morpho with their momentum driven by integrations, large stablecoin reserves, and efficiency improvements that compound user growth.

Meanwhile, incumbents such as Aave and Compound still attract meaningful liquidity but show lower relative ratios, reflecting maturity and saturation rather than decline. The picture that emerges is one of a lending sector reshuffling around efficiency, composability, and risk design, factors that translate directly into deposits.

Conclusion

The market is loud, crowded, and full of narratives, but fundamentals are still where sustainable returns are forged. TVL is climbing steadily, doubling in a year, and its distribution across protocols and sectors is telling us who is actually attracting users and liquidity. In lending, where TVL is synonymous with trust, the TVL/price ratio shows clear winners and challengers emerging.

For traders and investors, the takeaway is simple. Prices will swing with sentiment, but capital flows show where the real adoption is (unless bribed which is easy to figure out anyway). Monitoring TVL and TVL/price allows us to separate noise from substance. Right now, the message is that beneath the surface volatility, meaningful change is happening, and those who track it closely will see the opportunities before they flash on the charts.

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