Perp DEXes have dominated crypto headlines over the past two weeks, with incentives, airdrops, and buybacks driving a surge in volumes and attention. But as the initial excitement cools and the market is forward looking, the sector faces a more telling phase: how much of this activity will stick once rewards fade? The view is clear, perpetuals are structurally important, yet current dynamics suggest momentum is peaking. While late entrants may still enter the arena, the real test is identifying the long-term winner rather than chasing the broader narrative.

Quick recap

Over the past two weeks, narratives have shifted sharply toward perp DEXes. While alternatives to Hyperliquid were already being explored, it is only recently that a race for market share has emerged, led by centralized exchanges stepping into the space with Aster (Binance/CZ) and Avantis (Coinbase). At the same time, heavy incentive programs have gone live, fueling adoption. Since the third week of September, perp volumes have surged 3.2x, climbing from a $23B monthly average at the start of the month to $95B today.

The levers have been pulled

In the past week, most of the obvious levers, airdrops, buybacks, and incentive campaigns, have already been activated. This marks a transition into a more telling phase: how sustainable is this activity once rewards are distributed and perp dex usage is no longer driven by external incentives?

This dynamic is not new. It is the standard crypto playbook: a category leader (Hyperliquid) demonstrates the potential of a design space, competitors quickly crowd in, and heavy incentivization drives rapid adoption. It is a healthy process for bootstrapping liquidity and onboarding users, but history shows that the first wave of explosive activity is rarely sustainable. What matters now is whether any of these platforms can convert speculative flows into sticky usage and long-term market share.

Mindshare and momentum are peaking

The growth curve is already starting to bend. While volumes remain elevated, the momentum (first derivative) of perp DEX activity is slowing down. The capital flowing through these platforms is now being run at peak efficiency, meaning incremental inflows no longer generate the same outsized volume spikes.At the same time, mindshare is saturating. Crypto Twitter, influencers, and later adopters are already fully aware of the “perp DEX wars.” When an idea reaches this level of mainstream awareness within the space, the marginal narrative upside becomes limited. In other words, the trade becomes crowded, and positioning reflects that.

Normalization is the base case

None of this is to dismiss the fundamental value of perpetual futures. Perps are structurally important to crypto markets and will remain a dominant product category. Daily perp DEX volumes are unlikely to fall back to the quiet levels of early summer and a new, higher baseline leve of activity will be established now that users are more familiar with them.But it is equally unlikely that normalized activity will remain anywhere close to current levels. Today’s numbers, $60–95B daily volumes, an x-fold from only a month ago feel inflated by farming strategies. Once rewards normalize, activity is likely to settle somewhere above the summer average but well below the September peaks.

This is not breakthrough innovation

It is worth stressing that this craze is not being driven by a genuine breakthrough. In the past, token standards like ERC-20 or innovations like Bitcoin inscriptions created entirely new design spaces that drove sticky adoption. By contrast, the current wave is essentially new players competing in an existing category, copying Hyperliquid’s model and supercharging it with incentives.

As a result, there are few incremental benefits for users,  the product is (almost) the same, just more heavily subsidized. Perps are not meeting new needs or expanding into new markets, they are simply onboarding users faster through rewards. The TAM for perps isn’t growing, even as the market caps of these tokens are, which implies something will eventually need to normalize.

Together that makes adoption less sticky: users are rotating between venues for rewards rather than committing to protocols because of differentiated product-market fit. Once incentives fade, much of the “adoption” will fade with it.

Conclusion

Ultimately, perp DEX tokens are being supported by the idea that there will be a clear winner. The challenge is that today’s market dynamics suggest multiple winners are being assumed at once, which is unlikely to persist. 

Activity momentum is slowing, mindshare is saturated, and volumes are beginning to normalize. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a long-term leader, there almost certainly will be. But rather than treating the space as a single trade, it now comes down to identifying and backing the protocol most likely to capture lasting share.

The smarter approach from here is twofold:

• Downside protection: Acknowledge that activity could retrace if volumes adjust more quickly than expected.

• Selective exposure: Focus on the potential winner(s) rather than the entire narrative.