BTC and the Nasdaq: the correlation that only hurts
BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq remains high, however it trades with a bearish skew reacting more to pain than optimism. Even as we sit close to BTC all-time highs, this kind of steady asymmetry is unusual, something we usually only see during crypto bear markets.
12 Nov 2025
Opinions
Jasper De Maere
Performance Skew
The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq-100 remains high (~0.8). Despite that tight linkage, BTC doesn’t seem to share in any of the equity market’s strength, it only moves in sync when it hurts.
This isn’t a breakdown of correlation, but a reflection of asymmetry, the uneven way BTC responds to risk. When equities rally, BTC’s reaction is muted. When they sell off, BTC tends to move more sharply in the same direction.
We measure this relationship through the performance skew between BTC and the Nasdaq-100 ie. how much harder BTC falls on Nasdaq down days than it rises on up days.
Right now, that skew is firmly negative, showing that BTC still trades as a high-beta expression of risk sentiment, but only when it cuts the wrong way.
Two key observations:
The fact that the performance skew is structurally negative stands out, given BTC’s current price level. Negative asymmetry of this scale usually appeared when sentiment was washed out which has historically been a reflection of price activity.
Why is this happening now?
While there are a lot of other potential factors driving this. Two things stands out:
Mindshare shifting to equities
For much of 2025, the narrative capital that usually circulates within crypto, new token launches, infrastructure upgrades, fresh retail participation, has instead rotated toward equities. Mega-cap tech has become the magnet for both institutional and retail attention looking for high beta/growth. Much of the incremental dollar of risk appetite has flowed into the Nasdaq rather than digital assets (vs ‘20-21).
This crowding of mindshare means BTC remains correlated when global risk sentiment turns, but doesn’t benefit proportionally when optimism returns. It reacts as a “high-beta tail” of macro risk rather than a standalone narrative, the downside beta remains, the upside narrative premium does not.
Liquidity profile
The second part is structural. As discussed last week, crypto’s liquidity profile today is different than in previous risk cycles. Stablecoin issuance has plateaued, ETF inflows have slowed, and market depth across exchanges hasn’t recovered to early-2024 levels. That fragility amplifies negative reactions when equities correct. The result: BTC’s downside participation remains mechanically higher than its upside, widening that performance skew
Putting it together
Looking at correlation alone doesn’t tell the full story, it shows direction, not intensity. BTC still trades as a macro asset, reacting to liquidity and positioning,
Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t appear near tops but rather shows up near bottoms. When BTC falls harder on bad equity days than it rises on good ones, it usually signals exhaustion, not strength. While this surely is only part of the picture, the current BTC/Nasdaq performance skew suggests that BTC investors are somewhat exhausted and have been for a while. Given we’ve put down multiple ATHs and are <20% off the BTC top despite this dynamic speaks to how well BTC has been holding up.
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