Macro Update

Last week was relatively muted until the main event on Friday, when Bitcoin surged past $118,000 to a new all-time high, triggering over $1 billion in short liquidations across digital assets, the largest single-day wipeout of 2025, led by $590 million in BTC alone. BTC futures led the move with $590 million cleared, while open interest spiked by $2 billion. Ethereum hovered near $3,000 throughout, showing signs of renewed accumulation. 

Altcoins benefitted from the broader momentum, with multiple sectors posting double-digit gains. GMCI L2 (+23.9%) and USA Select (+23.2%) led, reflecting strength in large-cap and U.S.-focused names. Meme (+21.0%), Gaming (+21.4%), and DeFi (+18.7%) also outperformed, despite minor weekend pullbacks. Infrastructure sectors like AI (+17.0%), Utilities (+17.9%), and DePIN (+16.9%) saw steadier gains, while Layer 1s lagged slightly at +12.8%. The rally appears broad-based but skewed toward higher beta segments, suggesting renewed risk appetite as Bitcoin breaks higher.

On the macro front, there have been two notable developments.

First, Trump escalated trade tensions by announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and 30% tariffs on EU goods, both set to begin August 1, while continuing to float import taxes of 10–20% for other countries. 

Secondly, the U.S.'s proposed “Big and Beautiful” fiscal bill, featuring $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and leaving projected deficits near $3 trillion, has injected fresh momentum into risk markets. While equities rallied on the prospect of looser fiscal conditions, crypto markets traded moved sideways on the back of the headlines until Friday.

Both combined are creating an environment of uncertainty, which seems to be shared by the Federal Reserve itself. The latest FOMC minutes revealed a split committee, with no clear consensus on the timing or extent of rate cuts. Markets now price a 95% chance of no move in July and a 60% probability of a 25bps cut in September, leaving upcoming CPI and PPI data as key drivers.

Our take:

”The market is calibrating U.S. fiscal and monetary policy changes against rising geopolitical and trade-related tensions, with risk assets pushing higher despite the potential underlying uncertainty.”

The market is calibrating U.S. fiscal and monetary expansion against rising geopolitical and trade-related tensions. On one side, the proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut and growing expectations of Fed easing offer a supportive backdrop for risk assets. On the other, escalating tariff announcements and unresolved geopolitical tensions continue to resurface. As clarity increases around the trade agenda ahead of the seemingly immovable August 1 deadline, markets will potentially become more sensitive to new trade-related headlines.

Bitcoin All-Time-High

On Friday, Bitcoin broke through to a new all-time high at $118.8K and has since continued climbing, now trading around $121.8K at the time of writing. Naturally, this move is dominating headlines and market attention. Zooming out, the broader altcoin market is still lagging behind—currently valued at $1.44 trillion, roughly 18% below its December 2024 peak and still beneath the 2021 high. While there’s been a modest bounce following Bitcoin’s ATH, altcoins are relatively underperforming in both absolute terms and versus majors.

Our take:

“With a new BTC all-time high in the books, we take a closer look at the stats behind historical breakouts and their typical follow-through.”

After breaking a new all-time high (ATH), it's helpful to put the moment into context by looking at how Bitcoin has behaved around ATHs in the past. New ATHs tend to attract attention not just for the breakout itself, but for the anticipation that builds leading up to it. 

Looking at BTC’s ATHs since 2017, three key patterns stand out:

• ATHs tend to cluster – Most ATHs historically occur within five days of the last, underscoring the strong momentum BTC typically experiences once price discovery begins.

• Few ATHs in 2025 so far – Despite being 2H25, we’ve only seen five ATHs (exlc. today), making it the year with fewest breakouts outside of the years where there were none.

• Returns on ATH days are declining – The average daily return when BTC hits a new ATH has trended lower over the years, pointing to more measured breakouts.

Generally speaking, there tend to be two broad patterns when BTC hits a new all-time high:

• Quick follow-ups – ATHs that occur within a few days of the previous one, typically during strong, trending markets where price grinds higher with steady momentum.
• Slower breakouts – ATHs that come after a longer pause, often following consolidation or hesitation, and usually signal a more decisive breakout move.

Friday’s (11/07) breakout came 49 days after the previous one, right at the edge between shorter- and longer-gap ATH patterns. While not extreme, a 49-day pause is still notable, especially in the context of 2025, where ATHs have been rare.

To assess what typically follows these quicker breakouts, we looked at all ATHs since 2017 that occurred 5–50 days apart and analyzed their 30-day forward returns. Historically, setups like these have led to mixed results.

However, across both 2024 and 2025, there have been three shorter-gap ATHs, and none produced positive 30-day returns.

This shift suggests that while momentum remains a key driver of BTC rallies, short-term follow-through has weakened, making the current breakout a potential test of whether that trend is beginning to reverse.

Finally, we look at breakouts that occur after a longer gap (>50 days), specifically when more than 50 days have passed since the previous ATH. These tend to be more meaningful moves, with an average 30-day return of +17.4%. While outcomes vary, the data suggests that longer pauses often lead to stronger follow-through.

We see this noticeable difference in performance between quick follow-up ATH and delayed breakouts driven by:

• Pent-up demand and renewed conviction as the breakout signals a decisive shift

Structural bias, as these ATHs often occur earlier in bull cycles, when momentum is still building, not fading

2Q25 Venture Capital

On the back of recent activity, ranging from M&A and IPOs to treasury-backed equity raises, the debate around tokens vs. equity crypto-based investments is resurfacing. While ICO activity is picking up after two years of relative quiet, venture capital deployment in 2Q25 hit multi-year highs, telling us that equity-based crypto investing is firmly back in play.

Amid positive price action, more supportive U.S. regulation, and broader institutional engagement, 2Q25 saw ~$10.2B raised globally in crypto venture funding, the third-highest quarter on record and a level not seen since the last cycle’s peak. Notably, $3.8B (or 37%) of that capital was allocated to companies in U.S. jurisdictions across just 44 deals (13.1% of total), indicating significantly above-average ticket sizes for U.S.-based projects.

Meanwhile, the total number of deals came in at 330, slightly below the 5-year quarterly average, implying a potential increase in deal sizes.

Let’s take a closer look…

Our take:

“Unlike the last cycle in ’21 and ’22, when similar capital levels were deployed, today’s venture market appears more strategic and early-stage focused.”

To contextualize current venture activity, we compare 2Q25 deal flow with the average from the previous bull market (FY21 + 1H22). This helps surface structural shifts between today’s environment and the last period of elevated deployment.

We begin by examining the distribution of deal stages. Compared to the previous cycle, 2Q25 shows a notable decline in seed-stage activity (33% vs 53%), alongside a rise in both pre-seed (14% vs 8%) and strategic rounds (31% vs 13%).

The sharp increase in strategic rounds likely reflects a combination of:

Startups opting for more strategic capital in a post-2022 environment where funding has become more selective.

• Heightened participation from corporates and ecosystem-aligned investors.
• Startups opting for more strategic capital in a post-2022 environment where funding has become more selective.

The stage mix of deals has shifted notably since the last cycle. Seed rounds fell from 53% to 33% of activity, while pre-seed and strategic rounds gained share, rising to 14% and 31%, respectively. This points to a more polarized market, with increased focus on early-stage bets and a growing role for strategic capital. Meanwhile, Series A–C rounds saw modest declines, reflecting a more selective late-stage funding environment.

Today’s smaller late-stage rounds suggest investors are showing greater discipline, placing more emphasis on fundamentals, and exercising caution around valuations and capital deployment at more mature stages.

Another interesting observation is that strategic rounds saw the largest drop in average size, down 45% from the previous cycle. This can suggest that companies are turning to strategic deals earlier in their life cycle,  likely a combination of greater need for capital and increased appetite from strategic investors to get involved sooner.

Finally, we look at the sectoral allocation between both periods. We notice a pivot towards more core infrastructure and chain development, with blockchain infrastructure and L1/L2 chains gaining share, while consumer-facing sectors like GameFi, NFTs, and Social saw notable declines.