Wintermute
Wintermute
Market Update: 7 Jul 2025

Market Update: 7 Jul 2025

Analysis of recent crypto market developments from Wintermute OTC Desk

7 Jul 2025

Market Update

At a glance


  • Markets appear to be looking through short-term risk, with equities at all-time highs and Bitcoin inching closer to reclaiming its own.
  • Robinhood’s push into tokenized equities comes at a pivotal moment, just as falling rates weaken the tokenized debt trade and private companies remain out of reach for most investors.
  • EthCC[8] takeaways focused on institutional DeFi, ETH value accrual, and derivatives infrastructure, alongside a look at ETH’s historical price behavior around the past seven editions.

Macro Update

Where the final week of June was dominated by project-specific headlines, last week saw macro forces return to the spotlight, even as half the industry gathered in Cannes for EthCC. The original US tariff negotiation deadline, previously expected this week (9 July), has now been pushed to 1 August. Trump also said that he would add an additional 10% tariff to any country supporting the BRICS bloc. With little clarity on timing, targets, or net impact, it’s safe to expect some volatility as we edge closer to August.

After a weak start, Bitcoin quickly bounced from the $105K range to briefly touch $110K, supported by stronger than expected US jobs data on Thursday (+147k vs +110k). Bitcoin then traded in a tight range of roughly 2.6% for the rest of the week. Despite near-term catalysts such as potential rate cuts, regulatory clarity and tariff developments, BTC’s implied volatility continues to be suppressed (39.19).

Despite the approval of the Solana ETF, price action was underwhelming.. SOL ended the week up just 0.48%, only marginally outperforming the broader GMCI L1 index (+0.23%). At the same time, volumes dropped over 43%, suggesting the news was largely priced in.

Looking more broadly, the market staged a tactical but selective rebound. GMCI Large caps rose +2.7%, while memecoins gained +5.4%, lifted by outsized moves in names like PENGU, which surged around +70%. Mid and small caps were flat to negative and remain sharply lower on a 30-day basis. Structurally weaker sectors such as AI, Utilities, and DePIN fell -18%, -17%, and -15% respectively, highlighting ongoing caution outside of the market extremes.

Finally, in other news, a long-dormant Bitcoin whale resurfaced, moving around 80,000 BTC from eight Satoshi-era wallets that had been untouched since 2011. The stash, originally purchased for less than $210,000, was transferred without any test transactions. The move sparked renewed speculation across the crypto community, with some linking it to early adopter Roger Ver.

Our take:

“The market seems to be discounting short-term risk as equity markets hit ATHs and Bitcoin edges closer to reclaiming its own.”

Despite ongoing macro uncertainty, ranging from U.S. tariffs to Middle East tensions, broader markets, particularly equities, continue to push higher, while BTC still is trying to break above its highs, indicating that the market is perceiving most of the existing headlines as shorter term risks and is being constructive for 4Q25 and next year.

Across the broader digital asset market, we see continued weakness in sectors such as AI and DePIN that gained mindshare last year. At the same time, we’re seeing strength in large caps and, more recently, in high-beta tokens like memecoins. The results are early signs of a barbell market, with attention skewing toward either established leaders or highly speculative names, leaving the middle overlooked.

Robinhood and Arbitrum

At EthCC in Cannes, Robinhood announced the launch of over 200 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including public and private names like SpaceX and OpenAI, for EU and EEA users. Shortly after, however, OpenAI came out with a statement to make clear that they didn’t partner with Robinhood and that “OpenAI Tokens” don’t give consumer access to the company’s equity. 

These tokens enable 24/5 commission-free trading, dividend support, and fractional ownership, settled on Arbitrum. Robinhood also revealed plans for its own Layer 2 blockchain to support real-world asset tokenization, and expanded its crypto suite with EU perpetual futures and ETH/SOL staking in both the U.S. and Europe.

Our take:

“The push for tokenized equities comes at a pivotal moment, just as falling rates reduce the appeal of tokenized debt, and private companies continue to stay private for longer”

Time For Tokenized Equity

Robinhood’s move into tokenized equities marks a notable shift in a market that has so far been dominated by tokenized debt. Despite years of experimentation, tokenized stocks still make up just 1.7% of all tokenized real-world assets, about $424 million out of a $25 billion total. In contrast, U.S. Treasuries and private credit represent $21.9 billion, or 88% of the market

Beyond being lower-velocity assets with clear legal frameworks and standardized structures, debt instruments have seen strong onchain adoption over the past 2–3 years due to an additional driver: the growing demand for real-world yield in a crypto-native format.

As native onchain yields (DeFi) compressed in the wake of the 2021–2022 bear market, and global central banks raised risk-free rates, tokenized credit and Treasuries emerged as compelling alternatives, offering real yield in a crypto-native wrapper.

With central banks globally looking to cut rates in the next 12-18 months, this tailwind is likely to drop off and demand for onchain yield through traditional debt instruments could potentially soften. Robinhood’s timing is significant: as the yield trade loses momentum, tokenized equities, less dependent on interest rate dynamics, could emerge as the next major driver of onchain adoption.

The exhibit below shows the growth in onchain private credit and U.S. Treasury debt since 2022, tracking closely with the rise in the 3-month US T-bill rate. This shift is actually already happening. 

Private For Longer

Robinhood’s tokenization push is also said to include private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. While these tokens currently function more like synthetic derivatives than direct equity, offering no ownership or legal claim to the underlying shares, the concept taps into a broader trend.

Companies are staying private for longer, driven by an abundance of private capital, reduced pressure to IPO, and flexible alternatives like continuation vehicles. As retail demand for exposure to high-growth private assets continues to increase, tokenization presents a more elegant and accessible path to participate in markets that were historically out of reach.

The exhibit below shows how the average age of a private company going public has changed since 1980. Between 1980 and 1999, the average age was 8.1 years. Between 2000 and 2024, that number increased to 11 years, with the latest reading exceeding 16 years, indicating that companies are staying private for longer.

That said, the current setup is geared more toward giving consumers price exposure than providing exit liquidity for equity holders, since synthetic derivatives on private assets don’t enable existing holders to sell their actual stakes. Still, regulatory sentiment may be shifting. In a recent CNBC interview, former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins expressed support for tokenization by firms like Robinhood and Kraken, suggesting that clearer legal frameworks could emerge and pave the way for true equity tokenization over time.

EthCC [8]

EthCC, the Ethereum Community Conference, is one of the longest-running, largest dev-focused conferences in the crypto space. The 8th edition was held in Cannes, bringing together founders, researchers, developers and capital.

Every year the conference draws a significant part of the ecosystem, so any takeaways will inevitably reflect where and with whom time was spent, rather than an objective overview. That said, here is a snapshot of some things we picked up and stood out. 

ETH performance

Price activity and levels often shape the narrative and overall sentiment at conferences. This year’s edition was described as “cautiously optimistic”, likely a reflection of market conditions heading into the event. As shown below, ETH price action leading up to EthCC 2025 was relatively muted compared to prior years.

The exhibit below shows ETH price performance before and after each edition of EthCC since 2018, alongside the broader digital asset market. Historically, both ETH and the overall market have tended to perform well leading into the event, followed by weaker returns afterward. 

Below is our conference synthesis on select verticals:

Institutional & Compliant DeFi

As evidenced by some of the headlines like Robinhood (previously discussed), institutions are circling DeFi again, but are still figuring out how to engage.

  • TradFi interest is high but the path to integration is not always clear.
  • “Compliant” (incl. privacy-preserving) DeFi is becoming a design requirement.

ETH Value Accrual

There is a renewed urgency around bringing back value accrual to Ethereum’s baselayer.

  • Ethereum’s role as the base asset is being re-examined, especially post the Robinhood x Arbitrum announcement.
  • More discussion around ETH staking economics and validator incentives
  • Design discussions continue around how much Layer 2s should support Ethereum, financially, technically, and ideologically.

Prediction Markets, InfoFi and Tokenized Assets

Speculation-focused primitives, especially with real-world angles, are continuously trending.

  • Multiple variations of prediction markets and gambling dApps were featured.
  • Tokenized stock trading came up repeatedly, often as a form of synthetic exposure.
  • InfoFi and forecast/data angles generated by prediction markets are increasingly discussed as revenue opportunities of the platform.

Derivatives & Market Structure

As visible in exchange and onchain data, derivative markets are maturing fast.

  • Wide interest in onchain perps was shown, especially Hyperliquid-style challengers.
  • RWA perps and exotic instruments were recurring points of discussion.
  • Expectation that growing institutional demand will drive structural evolution across perps and more exotic options and structured products.

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