Macro Update

Bitcoin traded in a relatively tight range this week, holding between $115,000 and $120,000 despite a completed sale of 80,000 BTC, coins originating from the Satoshi era. The $9 billion sale marked the largest notional transfer in BTC’s history and briefly pushed prices to the lower end of the range. Still, markets absorbed the event quickly, with BTC reclaiming lost ground by day’s end, highlighting the asset’s growing maturity and deep structural bid.

Ethereum continued to ride off its recent momentum, climbing to $3,900, its highest level since early 2025, driven by record spot ETF inflows, including a single-day $3.1 billion surge. The move was reinforced by a regulatory shift under new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who declared ETH “not a security,” boosting institutional confidence. Solana followed with an 8% gain mid-week on ETF speculation and rising on-chain activity, while high-beta alts like SUI and Hyperliquid also outperformed.At the index level, large caps once again outperformed, with the GMCI-30 down just 2.3% and Layer 1s managing a slight gain of 0.3%, reflecting a defensive bid into majors. In contrast, higher-beta sectors posted heavy losses, AI fell 12.8%, Gaming dropped 12.2%, and Meme coins slid 10.8%. Small Caps led the downside, plunging 12.75%, while Layer 2s (-7.5%), DePIN (-9.7%), and Utilities & Tooling (-10.2%) also underperformed.

On the macro side, sentiment turned risk-on as the US and EU reached a deal capping global tariffs between 15–20%, easing fears of harsher trade barriers. Risk assets rallied, with equities grinding higher, while uncertainty lingers around the US–China talks now underway in Stockholm. Powell stayed measured in his latest remarks, but political pressure is building as markets increasingly price in a September rate cut.Looking ahead, the calendar is stacked: the FOMC meeting, US Core PCE, GDP, and jobs data all hit this week alongside key earnings and the August 1st trade deadline. With volatility still subdued, any surprise, on policy, inflation, or trade, could move markets.

Our take:

“The cryptomarket is showing signs of maturing”

This week reinforced that crypto markets are maturing, with BTC absorbing a $9B OTC trade and reclaiming range highs by day’s end. ETH led the charge on record ETF inflows and regulatory clarity, while rising BTC and ETH basis levels point to growing directional conviction and tightening spot supply. 

Risk appetite remains firm but measured, flows are steady, rotations are broadening. With trade tensions easing and the Fed likely on hold, macro remains supportive, but a loaded data calendar and long positioning leave room for volatility. 

The NFT Surge

After crossing a $6 billion market cap last week, the NFT market has continued its momentum, now reaching $6.7 billion, up nearly 100% over the past 30 days. It marks the strongest recovery in over a year, following an extended period of declining volumes and subdued activity.

Trading volumes across major platforms have also picked up meaningfully, accompanied by a sharp rise in liquidity and token pair activity. In the past 24 hours alone, 4,402 NFTs from the top 100 collections (by market cap) have changed hands, including 295 trades across just the top 10, led by names like CryptoPunks, Pudgy Penguins, Bored Apes, and Miladys.

The NFT rally has coincided with Ethereum’s recent surge, fueled by growing corporate treasury allocations and renewed ETF inflows. Unsurprisingly, the NFT rebound has been centered within the Ethereum ecosystem, where capital has flowed into established EVM-based blue chips, driving notable price appreciation.

A look at trading volumes confirms this trend: Ethereum continues to dominate NFT activity. Below is the aggregated volume by blockchain for the top 100 NFT collections by market cap, as of today.

When looking at NFT trading by exchange, it’s pretty clear things have turned into a two-horse race between OpenSea, the OG from before NFTs went mainstream, and Blur, which rose to prominence during the back-end of last cycle. Together, they now handle the lion’s share of trading volume.

NFT platforms are marketplaces and rely heavily on network effects as liquidity attracts more liquidity. So far, this latest surge in activity hasn’t sparked a wave of new platform launches. If momentum builds, through rising volumes, prices, and fresh launches, the question becomes whether new challengers will enter the fray, or if the market continues to consolidate around this duopoly.On the Bitcoin side, there was a burst of new platforms in late 2023 tied to Ordinals and Runes. While collections like NodeMonkes and Bitcoin Puppets held some momentum, most others fizzled out, struggling to replicate the success of EVM-based NFTs, especially given the very different market environment at the time.

Our take:

“NFTs are bouncing, but feels like a legacy rotation, not a new cycle (yet).”

While the recent bounce to a ~$6.7 billion NFT market cap has drawn attention, it still doesn’t feel like a full-blown revival. Activity is picking up, and it's encouraging to see NFTs move again, but several factors suggest this is a rebound, not a renaissance (yet).

• Low base effect

The rebound follows a steep drawdown. Even at $6.7b, market cap remains ~60% below its 2021 highs, making this more of a technical bounce than a structural comeback.

• Driven by legacy blue chips

Most activity is concentrated in older, Ethereum-native collections like CryptoPunks and Pudgy Pinguins. New mints and non-EVM ecosystems have seen lower traction so far, suggesting capital is rotating within established names, not expanding meaningfully into new ground.

• Lack of technical catalyst

Sustained NFT cycles have historically been driven by breakthroughs, like ERC-721 in 2020 or Ordinals in 2023, but this rebound doesn't have comparable innovation yet to reignite broad interest.

• Select Idiosyncratic momentum

Collections like Pudgy Penguins and Pengy have shown strong individual momentum, helping to briefly reignite interest in NFTs, and, by extension, shine a spotlight back on ETH. But these are isolated cases, not signs of a broader market trend.

Until broader demand returns and fresh narratives take hold, this looks more like a legacy asset rotation, driven by ETH strength, than the beginning of a new NFT cycle.