Macro update

Despite the weakness of the past week, looking on a two-month basis, crypto hasn't gone anywhere. We've been chopping in range while gold and silver rip to ATHs on the back of the "debasement trade" as DXY slides. BTC's "digital gold" narrative doesn't hold when it actually matters, or at least, not yet.

Vol is cheap as well. IV is compressed across the curve despite all the macro noise, which tells you participation is low and no one's paying for moves. Looking across other asset classes, there's a rotation happening. We've seen some crypto-Nasdaq decorrelation since January, but if risk-off kicks in properly, that correlation snaps back fast. Earnings season is here, and if the AI narrative disappoints, equities drag crypto down with them.

The range

Sixty days in this $85K–$94K box, unusual for Bitcoin. January gave us a breakout attempt toward $97K, the market got excited, we traded above range briefly, then it completely faded. No follow-through, no real bid behind it. Now we're back in the middle of the range. $85K keeps holding, every dip there finds buyers. That's the floor until it isn't. Institutions appear to be playing the range while retail remains sidelined.

The January strength coincided with strong ETF inflows. Since we rolled over, it's been the opposite, record weekly outflows from both BTC and ETH products. ETFs drive momentum in this market; when that bid disappears, you get choppy, directionless price action. Coinbase premium confirms it. US counterparties are net sellers, more so than Europe (marginal buyers) or Asia (neutral).

The US sets direction because that's where institutional capital enters – ETFs, corporate treasuries, outright spot buying. As visible in the Coinbase premium, these flows have turned negative, putting pressure on the broader market. ETF flows and CB premium are the gauges to watch. We need both to flip before the market can break convincingly above mid-$90K levels.

ETF and CB premium are great gauges here. We’d need negative momentum in both of them to reverse structurally before the market can break convincingly above mid-90s BTC levels.

Breaking the range

Four themes have driven markets the past few months: AI, rates, USD-debasement and geopolitics. This week has catalysts on all of them, which could finally break BTC out of its 60-day range.

• FOMC Wednesday – no cut expected so the decision itself doesn't matter, but the dot plot and Powell's tone do. Any hawkish lean on sticky inflation sends yields higher, dollar stronger, risk lower.
• Tariffs – still unresolved with negotiations around Greenland ongoing. Gold is catching safe-haven flows partly because of this. Escalation hurts crypto near-term (stronger dollar, risk-off), de-escalation would be a relief.
• Mag 7 earnings – Microsoft, Meta, Tesla on Wednesday, Apple Thursday. After record AI capex in 2024, this is the year markets expect these companies to start growing into their revenue numbers. Guidance matters more than the prints. Bullish AI spending with a clear path to monetization keeps risk on. Caution on margins or pulling back capex sends Nasdaq lower and crypto follows.
• Dollar dynamics – two developments worth watching. Reports suggest the Fed is considering coordinated dollar selling and yen buying for the first time since '98, though nothing confirmed yet. Government shutdown risk sits at 81% on Polymarket. Both have historically pressured DXY, which would support risk assets.

The direction on any of these is hard to call, but a calendar this loaded tends to produce volatility.

Our take:

“Range holds until proven otherwise, watching $85K and ETF flow momentum"

The range is getting stale but the setup isn't bearish – it's stuck. $85K has been tested enough that it's either a strong floor or a trap waiting to spring. The fact that it holds while US flows are negative and vol is this compressed suggests there's a bid somewhere, just not an aggressive one.

Gold is doing what BTC is supposed to do. Equities are waiting on earnings to justify valuations. BTC is in no man's land, not weak enough to break down, not strong enough to reclaim momentum. Macro is setting up for a move but crypto can't catch one.

That changes with ETF flows flipping or a dollar move. If the Fed intervenes on yen and DXY continues to roll over, that's a clean catalyst for risk assets. Mag 7 delivering and the AI narrative holding sends Nasdaq higher, which lifts crypto with it. On the other side, Powell leaning hawkish or tariffs escalating puts real weight behind an $85K retest.

Sixty days of compression meeting this much event risk, something gives.